US Online Shopping Expected to Reach $1.8 Trillion by 2030, with Hybrid Models and AI Leading the Way

Forrester expects the e-commerce sector in the United States to see continuous growth in the coming years, with total sales reaching about $1.8 trillion by 2030. This would make up roughly 29% of all retail sales. At the same time, traditional physical stores are set to keep the largest share of the market, valued at around $4.4 trillion, representing 71% of total sales. The study also showed that the overall US retail market – excluding car and fuel sales – is projected to climb from $5.2 trillion in 2025 to about $6.2 trillion by 2030. This growth is driven by several key factors, most notably Generation Z entering the workforce, improved efficiency in supply chains, better shipping services, and order fulfillment, alongside the rise of smart shopping models that rely on digital agents, known as "Agentic Commerce."

 Digital Sales Channels

Even with all the ongoing momentum in digital sales channels, the study confirmed the continued importance of physical stores in consumer behavior. They offer a direct, sensory experience, the ability to compare products in person, social interaction, and personalized services – all elements that are tough to replace through online channels. The study explained that the role of traditional stores is no longer limited to just completing sales. Instead, it has transformed into a platform for providing unique experiences and building long-term relationships with customers. This really helps boost loyalty levels and increases the added value for brands. It also noted that store sales have only seen a decline once in fifteen years, and that was in 2020 due due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

E-commerce

On the other hand, e-commerce continues to solidify its position as a primary growth channel, especially during peak seasons. Consumers spent about $257.8 billion online during the holiday period last year, from November to the end of December, marking a 6.8% increase year-over-year. Data from Adobe Analytics also revealed an unprecedented surge in traffic directed to merchant websites through generative artificial intelligence tools, recording a 693% year-over-year growth. This really shows the accelerated adoption of smart technologies in guiding purchasing decisions. In related news, a survey conducted by Salsify showed a drop in the percentage of daily online shoppers from 21% to 9%. This suggests that traditional stores continue to lead the shopping experience, despite the growing role of digital channels as a complementary and essential path in the multi-channel sales ecosystem. These indicators reflect a growing trend towards a hybrid retail model that combines both digital and traditional channels. Companies are striving to achieve a balance between the easy accessibility offered by e-commerce and the experiential value that distinguishes physical stores.